Paul Glezen, M.D. , Chair
Influenza Research Center
Houston, Texas 77030
Robin Bush, Ph.D.
University of California Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697
Richard Compans . M.D.Emory UniversityAtlanta, GA
Nancy Cox , Ph.D. National Center for Infectious DiseasesCenters for Disease Control and Prevention404firstname.lastname@example.org
Marja EsveldWorld Health OrganizationGeneva, Switzerland0041 email@example.com
Kathleen Gensheimer, M.D. Maine Bureau of HealthAugusta, Maine 04333
Frederick Hayden, M.D. Division of Infectious DiseasesUniversity of Virginia
firstname.lastname@example.org Mark Lipsitch, Ph.D. Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MA 02115
Marshall McBean, M.D. University of Minnesota School of Public HealthMinneapolis, MN
Arnold Monto, M.D.University of MichiganAnn Arbor, MI 48109-2029
Peter Palese, Ph.D. Mount Sinai School of MedicineNew York, NY 10029
MIDAS investigators met with experts (see above roster) on influenza on October 27-28. This consultation was intended to increase MIDAS participants' knowledge of the virus and disease and to establish working relationships with scientists who can provide guidance to the MIDAS pandemic influenza project.
MIDAS investigators invited experts to help the modeling effort by
The experts gave a series of presentations and participated in lively and productive discussions on all of these issues. Topics included
The experts' experience brought out the complexity of influenza information and public health issues, such as understanding the population and evolutionary dynamics of the virus, studies of vaccine and antiviral efficacy, the natural history of the disease, and the difficulty of getting useful data. The presentations are available on the MIDAS Portal at www.epimodels.org .
MIDAS researchers and influenza experts agreed to continue to collaborate and to work toward a better understanding of influenza outbreaks by sharing ideas, results, and data.
After two days of informative and intense discussion, the consultation ended on the afternoon of October 28.
Immediately following, the MIDAS researchers met to consider how to make use of this knowledge. The following researchers were present:
Don BurkePhil CooleyDerek CummingsJamie CuticchiaIrene Anne EckstrandStephen EubankNeil FergusonElizabeth HalloranSuzanne LeaIra LonginiMike RiggsDiane Wagener
Derek CummingsCollect Thailand influenza data, including census, mortality, hospitalizations, etc.
Irene EckstrandSet up MIDAS Influenza Collaborative Group
Neil FergusonFind out if and when the G8 flu parameter meeting will be heldSend contact information for Mallick Peiris to Irene
Suzanne LeaBuild bibliography relevant to influenza modeling
Ira LonginiInvite small group to set model parameters
AllConsider how to become involved in WHO, possibly by sending an intern to work in the organization and present MIDASImmediately start developing model for H5 influenza outbreak in Asia
The Network agreed to develop two models for an outbreak in Asia, one based on Ira Longini's influenza model and the other based on Neil Ferguson's model. The specific modeling question is
Model CharacteristicsThe model will be based on a rural and small town region containing 500,000 people. Don Burke and Neil Ferguson have demographic data and will be able to collect some additional information quickly. Once the data are in hand, the social structure will be determined.
Parameter identificationIt is important to estimate model parameters as accurately as possible. We agreed to ask two or three experts to help with this task, either at a face to face meeting or by conference call. Ira Longini will contact Fred Hayden and Arnold Monto and possibly Mallick Pieros about participating.
MIDAS Influenza Collaborative GroupA productive collaboration among influenza experts and modelers is fundamental to the project's success. We agreed to set up a collaborative group to
Irene Eckstrand will identify members and launch the group.
Dr. Miron Livny presented information about the Condor computing project at the University of Wisconsin and its applicability to MIDAS. Condor is a specialized distributed computing system for compute-intensive jobs. Condor provides a job queueing mechanism, scheduling policy, priority scheme, resource monitoring, and resource management. We discussed several issues such as security, availability of computers, and the ability to network existing computers. Ira Longini's group will explore how well Condor works on the existing Emory models. Information on Condor is available at http://www.cs.wisc.edu/condor/ .
This page last reviewed on
11/14/2014 9:46 AM
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